Choosing the best without taking forever

Hunting for the perfect apartment, hiring a developer, or trying to figure out who’ll become your co-founder? Sounds like you’re facing the secretary problem and its 37% rule:

  • Decide how many options you’ll potentially look at in total.
  • Use the first 37% for research only — don’t choose any of them.
  • Then choose the first option that beats everything you’ve seen so far.

Under the classic problem’s assumptions — a known finite number of options in random order, no going back, and the sole goal of choosing the single best one — the math shows that this approach maximizes your chance of success.

Where it works in practice:

  1. Hiring

Planning 20 interviews? Use the first 7–8 candidates for calibration. Compare them, establish the bar, and then hire the first person who beats that benchmark.

  1. Renting / buying a home

How many apartments can you realistically view before your lease ends? Multiply that number by 0.37, view them, establish your benchmark, and choose the next one that makes you say “wow” by comparison.

  1. Dating

If you’ve committed to 30 dates (hypothetically), use the first 11 simply to see who’s out there. After that, choose the first person who is objectively better than everyone you’ve met so far.

  1. Choosing a tool / technology

Make a list of 10 candidate solutions, test 4, then take the first one that beats those four on your KPIs.

But what if? What if the ideal option came before the 37% cutoff?

There are no guarantees. Even under the classic assumptions, the optimal rule succeeds only about 37% of the time; in the other roughly 63%, you miss the best option. The cutoff maximizes the chance of success — it does not minimize the risk in any general sense.

Real life rarely matches all of those assumptions. If a merely “good enough” result will do, define that threshold separately — but treat it as a practical heuristic, not part of the mathematical proof.

I want to see everything! — “Just a little longer and I’ll find the pearl in all that sand.” Time is money, and the rule gives you a stopping strategy rather than certainty. Your call.

Unknown or unlimited options? — The classic 37% rule no longer applies directly. First set a finite limit on budget, time, or energy; only then can you define a sampling phase.

A simple rule, but it saves you from endless swiping. Where in your life would it come in handy right now?